Although the number of COVID-19 cases seem to be going down, Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer remains cautious about whether or not that will continue, and he suggests more will need to be done if we want to have a big family Christmas this year. Dr. Saqib Shahab says modelling shows that even if what we have experienced is the worst of it and the numbers of new cases lowers, we still won’t be at what would be considered a sustainable state until the beginning of next year. That’s because it takes much longer for results to be reflected in the number of people with COVID-19 in the hospital.

The modelling indicates that if we are in the worst of it and numbers decrease, it will take three months to bring the situation down to a more normal state. That translates to around 20,00 surgeries and other procedures cancelled and worsening health conditions.

However, Dr. Shahab suggests that if we all cut down on the number of people they are in contact with, and gathering sizes, it would take 28 days to bring down the COVID numbers to a more sustainable level.

The Chief Medical Health Officer notes that people who are unvaccinated are six times more likely to get COVID-19 compared to those who are fully vaccinated, 13 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 28 times more likely to end up in an ICU. Seventy-seven per cent of transmission of COVID-19 is from households or other community settings and just over 48 per cent of all COVID-19 admissions to Saskatchewan hospitals had their first positive COVID test on or after admission to the hospital.

Click below for the modelling.

SK Data Analytics and Projections Oct 20 Final

(CJWW)