If the U.S. implements widespread tariffs on Canadian goods, American farmers will be hard-hit as they rely heavily on Canada for inputs like potash, said Nutrien Ltd. CEO Ken Seitz.
Seitz says Canada supplies more than 80 per cent of the potash used on U.S. farms, and as the company looks at what tariffs could do to its business, “by far the biggest discussion is about potash.”
“The cost of this would be borne by the U.S. farmer,” he told analysts on a conference call discussing Nutrien’s fourth-quarter earnings.
“We’ve had these dialogues, a lot of them, with governments on both sides of the border.”
Potash is a key component in fertilizers, and Canada produced about a third of the world’s supply in 2023, according to Natural Resources Canada. It was followed by Russia and Belarus, which together produced roughly another third.
After the tariffs were initially announced, U.S. association The Fertilizer Institute urged the Trump administration to exempt Canadian potash and other fertilizers from the duties, especially as the industry approached the critical spring planting time.
“U.S. agriculture is benefited by a strong trade relationship with Canada that provides farmers with reliable access to essential crop nutrients,” the organization said in a press release at the time.
In addition to being the source for the vast majority of potash used in the U.S., Canada supplies U.S. growers with more than eight per cent of their nitrogen fertilizer needs, the institute said.
In the fourth quarter, Nutrien sold US$536 million in potash, US$1.01 billion in nitrogen, and US$414 million in phosphate. Sales in its retail business were US$3.18 billion.
If the U.S. implements the sweeping tariffs it announced earlier this month, farmers south of the border would be paying 25 per cent extra on imports from Canada.
Nutrien said it has attempted to account for the uncertainty of tariffs in its potash sales forecast range for the coming year. Its sales volume guidance for potash is 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes.
However, it also expects to see fundamentals improve for the potash market in 2025.
Last year saw global potash shipments rebound, driven by better supply and demand, Nutrien said.
The company earned US$118 million in its fourth quarter, down from US$176 million a year earlier. The company said the lower earnings were mainly due to lower prices and sales volumes of potash.
Sales for the Saskatoon-based company were lower too, totalling US$5.1 billion.
Diluted earnings per share were 23 cents US, down from 35 cents US a year earlier.
Earnings for the full financial year were down 45 per cent to US$700 million, while sales were down 11 per cent at US$30.0 billion.
The company also announced a one per cent increase to its quarterly dividend and said it intends to repurchase up to five per cent of its issued and outstanding common shares over a 12-month period.
Nutrien has been implementing automation in its potash mining operations, and in 2024 it mined 35 per cent of its potash ore tonnes using automation. The company is progressing toward its 2026 target of 40 to 50 per cent, said Seitz.
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