Statistics Canada has released a seeding intentions report based on a survey of producers from across the country.
While the report shows some interesting trends, the results are being discounted because so much has changed since the survey was conducted. The survey of 8,200 farmers was conducted between December 13 and January 17.
Since then, off and on U.S. tariff threats and most recently 100 per cent Chinese tariffs on canola oil, canola meal and peas have changed the profitability picture on many crops, most notably canola which has seen its price absolutely plummet this week. While the Stats Can survey has canola acreage dropping by 1.7 per cent this year, with recent events it would be reasonable to assume a larger drop.
On the other hand, canola seed and other inputs have already been purchased by most farmers which makes a switch to other crops problematic and then there’s the question of what do you switch to.
Stats Can has pea acreage increasing 9.5 per cent, but that would seem to be in doubt given the recent announcement by China. Stats Can has flax acreage down by 11 per cent, but flax prices have shown some strength in recent weeks.
The biggest changes percentage wise are Canary seed, down 20 per cent from last year and mustard down a whopping 52 per cent. Canary seed prices are disappointing and mustard prices are dismal, but those are larger drops than anticipated by most observers.
With so many other factors in the marketplace, the outdated Stats Can numbers are not expected to have much influence on prices.