Saskatchewan is forecasting a $349 million deficit at first quarter, a sharp swing from the $12 million surplus projected in the 2025-26 budget.
The province says total revenue is expected to reach $20.9 billion, down $172 million from budget, while expenses are forecast at $21.2 billion, up $189 million.
Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Jim Reiter said the update reflects both fiscal pressures and the government’s commitment to supporting key services.
“Today’s update underscores government’s commitment to keeping our communities safe and continuing to invest in healthcare, education and other essential services,” Reiter said. “While economic uncertainty is creating financial challenges both nationally and globally, Saskatchewan’s financial position remains stable. We will continue to protect and advocate for the province’s economic interests.”
Much of the revenue drop is tied to lower Government Business Enterprise net income, including a $163 million decline from SaskPower. The province says that is largely the result of removing the federal carbon tax from customer bills in the first quarter. Non-renewable resource revenue is also expected to fall $30 million, reflecting lower oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar.
On the expense side, an $80 million increase is being used to cover wildfire suppression and evacuation efforts, which will be addressed in a special warrant set for release on Aug. 25. Another $115 million increase is tied to pension accrual adjustments.
Reiter said the government’s priority remains ensuring resources are available to support firefighters and affected families during what he described as a devastating wildfire season.
Despite the projected deficit, Saskatchewan points to signs of economic strength, including retail sales, housing construction and labour market performance. The province also continues to hold the highest overall credit rating in Canada and expects a net debt-to-GDP ratio of 14.5 per cent by March 31, 2026 — the second-lowest among provinces.
The Saskatchewan NDP is taking aim at the provincial government after the first-quarter update.
Finance shadow minister Trent Wotherspoon said the Sask. Party mismanaged finances, arguing the government tabled a budget with an unrealistic surplus projection and is now failing to deliver results.
“Who could have guessed it? We said from day one that this budget wasn’t worth the paper it’s written on,” Wotherspoon said. “They botched the resource and economic projections, and they said they were cancelling the carbon tax when they are now collecting even more from it.”
The NDP says the province is taking in $35.4 million more in carbon tax revenue than initially forecast, despite previously claiming it had eliminated the levy. Wotherspoon added that three Crown corporations are collectively losing close to $300 million a year, which he said could lead to increases in power, auto and insurance rates.
The Opposition also pointed to economic headwinds, noting falling exports to China and the United States, as well as the government’s failure to prepare for tariff impacts.
“People are going to pay for this, with higher debt and higher interest,” Wotherspoon said, adding debt is projected to rise by $430 million this year to $38.7 billion.
“This is a government that simply isn’t focused on building a bright future for the people of Saskatchewan,” he said.
Comments