China is expected to import one million tonnes less of canola in 2025/26 than in the previous marketing year.
That's according to the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing.
China was projected to acquire 3.1 million tonnes of canola this year versus 4.1 million in 2024/25.
Trade frictions between Canada and China are the primary driver for the updated forecast, considering the 75.8 per cent tariff China has on its imports of Canadian canola seed, plus 100 per cent duties on the oil and meal.
Through the first nine months of 2024/25, Canada supplied 97 per cent of China’s foreign canola purchases.
However, more recently China resolved its trade differences with Australia and is importing more of that country’s canola.
The attaché estimated China’s canola production at 15.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, the same as the year before.
