ST. JOHN’S — After a tough, see-saw battle between Newfoundland and Labrador’s two main political parties, the Progressive Conservatives appeared to be holding a lead over the governing Liberals on Tuesday night, getting the Tories very close to a surprise majority win.
Two hours after the polls closed, the Tories were leading or elected in 21 ridings, with the Liberals leading or elected in 15. A total of 21 seats is needed for a majority in the 40-seat house. The New Democrats were expected to pick up two seats; two Independents were also elected.
The autumn election campaign largely focused on a proposed multibillion-dollar energy deal with Quebec, but the Tory surge indicated that their focus on pocketbook issues struck a chord with voters.
Liberal Premier John Hogan, a 47-year-old lawyer, has said the proposed energy agreement between Hydro-Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro could inject $225 billion into the provincial treasury over 50 years, providing economic salvation for the financially fragile province.
Hogan has said the memorandum of understanding between the two utilities was “the election issue.”
On Tuesday night, he was easily re-elected in Windsor Lake, a district on the east side of St. John’s.
Tony Wakeham, his main rival, has argued that the deal is not as good as it could be. The former health-care bureaucrat has pledged to have the document reviewed by an independent third party, pointing to lessons from the province’s past energy project failures.
On another front, the Tory leader repeatedly asked voters to consider whether they are better off after almost 10 years of Liberal rule. Wakeham was easily elected in the district of Stephenville—Port au Port on Newfoundland’s west coast.
The New Democratic Party, led by 65-year-old former teacher Jim Dinn, was not expected to be a contender in the election, having never held more than five seats in the legislature. But with the race so tight, the NDP could hold the balance of power in the legislature.
The election call came after wildfires in central and eastern Newfoundland destroyed more than 200 homes and other structures. During that time, Hogan’s low-key leadership won kudos for the new premier, who was sworn in to the top role on May 9.
But the Liberal campaign was partially hobbled by the loss of several cabinet ministers who quit before the election race began, including Siobhan Coady, John Haggie, Gerry Byrne, Andrew Parsons and Tom Osborne.
Whoever forms the new government will have to deal with the province’s ballooning debt, which is expected to reach almost $20 billion next year — the largest per capita provincial debt in the country. The province will spend more than $1 billion this fiscal year on interest and repayment obligations.
Meanwhile, health care and housing also figured prominently during the campaign, but the fate of the Quebec energy deal appeared to get the most attention on the hustings and during a leaders debate last week.
In St. John’s, a steady stream of people arrived to cast a ballot at a downtown station an hour before polls closed. One voter, who declined to give her name, said the high cost of living was top of mind as she made her choice. She said she works two jobs to make ends meet, and her hourly wages for one job have gone up by about $1.50 over the past eight years.
When asked to name the most important issue of the campaign, a male voter said it wasn’t the proposed energy deal.
Hogan is seeking his first election victory as party leader, as are Wakeham and Dinn.
When the election was called, the Liberals held 19 of the legislature’s 40 seats, the Progressive Conservatives held 14, the NDP had one, and there were two Independents and four vacant seats.
Voters in Canada’s easternmost province have made a habit of granting governments at least three consecutive terms in office since the province joined Confederation in 1949.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 14, 2025.
— With files from Michael MacDonald in Halifax.
Sarah Smellie, The Canadian Press
