Volatile temperatures expected for this winter

SASKATOON — Western Canadian farmers will need to closely monitor their thermometers in the coming months, says a weather expert.

“There will be a lot of volatility this winter season,” said Nathan Hamblin, long-range meteorologist with DTN.

The season is expected to start out cold in December and likely finish off that way in February and March, but there will be a warming up period around January.

“So, lots of ups and downs,” he said during a recent DTN webinar.

Overall, it will likely be a colder-than-normal winter in the Canadian Prairies.

Precipitation is expected to be normal with dry and wet periods balancing each other out. It is likely to be dry when it is cold and wet when it warms up in January.

“There will be enough snow falling to at least get some snow cover down,” he said.

Hamblin said the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is going to have the biggest impact on weather conditions in Canada and the United States.

“We’re right on the cusp of La Nina,” he said.

It is expected to be a weak La Nina that starts to fade in January.

He anticipates a winter like last year with above average temperatures in the eastern and southern United States and below average temperatures in the north-central region.

Hamblin anticipates an active storm track from the Tennessee Valley to the Great Lakes, while it should be dry across the south.

The Polar Vortex is expected to be weak, which means it will tend to dip south rather than staying “bottled up” in the higher latitudes.

When it dips sout,h extreme cold temperatures will follow, but it is impossible to know where and when that will happen until about two weeks before it occurs.

“The cold air could easily just go over to Asia or Europe and leave us alone, or it could come down our way,” he said.

Stephen Strum, vice-president of extended forecast services with DTN, said there is a higher risk

In the second half of winter, the higher risk area switches to the Plains and to the northwest.

The south will be warmer than normal throughout most of the winter season.

Precipitation will be quite variable in the northern half of the country, while the south will be dry. The Tennessee Valley to the Great Lakes region will be wetter than normal.

“Most of the northern tier of the country does look to be snowier than average this winter season,” said Strum.

The central Plains will experience less than normal snowfall.

Strum said the forecast could change depending on how strong La Nina becomes and how long it lasts.

It will also be influenced by whether the Polar Vortex delivers shots of bitterly cold weather into North America or elsewhere around the world.

About the author

Sean Pratt

Sean Pratt has been working at The Western Producer since 1993 after graduating from the University of Regina’s School of Journalism. Sean also has a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Saskatchewan and worked in a bank for a few years before switching careers. Sean primarily writes markets and policy stories about the grain industry and has attended more than 100 conferences over the past three decades. He has received awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Federation, North American Agricultural Journalists and the American Agricultural Editors Association.