REGINA — Those attending the Farm Credit Canada Young Farmers Summit in Regina were cautioned that expectations for a stronger and more stable economic environment in 2026 may need to be tempered.
Graeme Crosbie, senior economist with Farm Credit Canada, delivered an economic outlook presentation to summit attendees, noting the sector continues to face volatility driven by tariffs and trade uncertainty, particularly from the United States under President Donald Trump.
“I guess the overarching theme is just the chaos is here to stay, maybe,” Crosbie said in speaking to SaskToday after his presentation.
Crosbie said farmers are now operating in a very different global trading environment than in past decades.
“The global trading environment that we’re in today is very different from the one we’ve been operating in for the last roughly 30 or maybe even 70 years,” he said.
“It’s not that trade has stopped, right? It’s just things are changing, things are evolving, reconfiguring. And while that’s happening, there’s going to be ups and downs, but there will be opportunities along the way. We’re just not entirely sure how they’re going to necessarily present themselves.”
When asked how farmers should navigate such uncertainty, Crosbie said his message focused on managing what is within their control.
“There are a lot of things that are outside of your control. If you can utilize the tools and technology and take the time to truly understand, as best you can, your cost of production, when those opportunities present themselves — when those pricing opportunities present themselves — you’ll feel much more comfortable locking in a potential return and being comfortable with that decision, right? Rather than going off your gut feel.”
On the tariff front, Crosbie said trade relations with the United States have been relatively quiet since April 2025.
“We do have that exception in place that if goods are CUSMA [Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement] compliant, they can still enter the U.S. market. So that’s certainly been positive for primary producers in terms of market access to the States,” he said.
Crosbie also pointed to recent positive developments with China.
“There has been some positive news in terms of market access with the Chinese market on the canola and pea and seafood front in the last number of weeks,” he said, referencing China’s decision to lift several tariffs.
Looking ahead, Crosbie said economists are closely watching the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement review process scheduled to begin in July.
“That could be a relatively drawn-out process. And I think there’s a lot of noise out there with how the review could go, but I think there is support on both sides in the ag space to see that deal continue. And so we’ll be hopeful that that’ll be the case,” he said.
As for the broader Canadian economy, Crosbie said farmers should not expect either a boom or a recession.
“The short answer would be neither,” he said.
“Maybe a bit of malaise is the best word to describe it.”
Crosbie said forecasts suggest the Canadian economy will continue to grow in 2026, but below its full potential.
“I think 2026, from our models and our forecast in terms of the wider Canadian economy, is shaping up to be a weak year. We still see positive economic growth in that range of 1.2 per cent, but that’s not quite at the level that we would consider to be the potential of the Canadian economy, which would be in that 2.25 to 2.75 per cent.”
He added that the outlook is “neither necessarily bullish or overly bearish.”
