Weekly exports of wheat have slipped in recent weeks as canola exports are ramping up, according to the latest wheat market outlook from Ty Kehrig with Exceed Grain Marketing.
Around 257,000 tonnes of canola have been shipped over the last week compared to 220,300 tonnes of wheat.
Despite that, Kehrig said wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are still ahead of the previous year's pace. So far, 12.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of wheat have been exported compared to 11.2 MMT the same time last year. It's 10 per cent above last year's pace, according to the report.
However, Kehrig said "steady competition from global exporters will and have been keeping Canadian values in check", pointing to U.S. Pacific Northwest bids dropping in the last two weeks "weeks to match close to Canadian wheat export values off the west coast."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture seem to believe Canadian wheat exports will set a new record this year. In its latest report, the USDA bumped its forecast to 29 million metric tonnes for the year, up from the previous forecast of 28 million tonnes.
"If realized, this does leave an estimated ending stocks figure of around 5.9 MMT for Canadian wheat. If this number proves to show itself, it's more of a neutral carryout figure from a domestic standpoint. A stocks-usage ratio of 15.2% would be in the lower end of recent years, but not necessarily tight enough to create a short wheat scenario domestically. As always, we will continue to monitor the wheat export progress and the pace in each week for the wheat market." Kehrig said, adding the figure could be higher if the current pace is maintained to the end of the marketing year.
Meanwhile, Statistics Canada will release planted acreage estimates for the 2026/27 crop next Thursday.
Kehrig said "pre-report estimates are believing to have the acreage remain relatively flat for Canadian wheat planted acres for the upcoming year. Producers in Canada are still mulling what to put in the ground for the upcoming crop marketing year, which is set to begin late April and early May. Current crop economic outlooks for acreage look to support mostly flat to higher rapeseed acres, relatively flat wheat acres, and markets are anticipating a drop in pulse and oat acres."
Comments from Kehrig come from the Wheat Market Outlook podcast, available on the SaskWheat website.
