OTTAWA — Votes are being counted in byelections in the federal ridings of Terrebonne, Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale.
The results will decide whether Prime Minister Mark Carney gets a majority in the House of Commons. A win in at least one of the races would make his the first federal government in Canada’s history to switch from a minority to a majority between elections.
Both of the Toronto ridings are considered Liberal strongholds.
Liberal candidate Danielle Martin hopes to hold the seat vacated by former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland in University-Rosedale, while former NDP MPP turned Liberal candidate Doly Begum is seeking Bill Blair’s former riding of Scarborough Southwest.
Terrebonne features a rematch between Liberal Tatiana Auguste and Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné a year after that riding produced the closest result in the country in the last federal election.
The byelection race in the Montreal suburb has been a knock-down, drag-out fight between the Bloc Québécois and the governing party.
Nearly 20 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in the advance polls in the riding.
The Liberals dispatched staffers and their entire Quebec caucus — plus the prime minister himself — to stump for Auguste.
Liberal MP Kody Blois said Monday his party is “competitive” and has been “throwing everything we have” at the riding.
In February, the Supreme Court of Canada annulled the Terrebonne result due to a clerical error on the return address for some mail-in ballots.
Sinclair-Desgagné, who represented the riding for the Bloc between 2021 and 2025, said she fought hard to win the riding back and was frequently congratulated at the doorstep for forcing the byelection by taking the result to court.
“We’ve been doing a great campaign … convincing citizens one-by-one,” she said. “We’re looking forward to having, hopefully, a clear result.”
Christine Normandin, the Bloc’s House leader, said the party was feeling confident on Monday night.
She said the byelection’s context is different from last year’s election, when the question on everyone’s mind was who would be best suited to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Normandin said that with the Liberals on their way to a majority government, Terrebonne constituents are more concerned with local issues like housing, the proposed high-speed rail project and care for the elderly.
“We hope to have Nathalie back as a strong voice for Terrebonne, for Quebec in Ottawa, instead of having a voice of the government in Terrebonne,” she said.
Health Minister Marjorie Michel, who was among the top Liberals who helped out in the longtime Bloc riding, said the Liberals have campaigned hard at a time when the government enjoys high levels of approval.
“A lot of people are talking about a majority, et cetera, but I would tell you in that specific election, it’s a local door-to-door election,” she said Monday. “It’s a battle.”
Michel was joined by several cabinet colleagues at Auguste’s watch party on Monday evening, including Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, Procurement Minister Joël Lightbound, Secretary of State for Nature Nathalie Provost and Rachel Bendayan, the prime minister’s parliamentary secretary.
Before the byelections, the Liberals held 171 seats, one shy of the 172 needed for a majority.
What now makes a majority possible, a year after the last election, is the addition of five opposition MPs who crossed the floor to the Liberals in recent months.
The floor crossings that padded the government’s numbers began back in November, with Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont leaving the Conservatives for the Liberals.
He was followed by Toronto-area MP Michael Ma in December and Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux in February. Lori Idlout, the lone Nunavut MP, left the NDP for the government benches in March.
The most recent addition is Marilyn Gladu, a four-term Ontario Conservative MP whose defection surprised many because she was widely seen as a staunch Conservative.
The Liberals need at least 173 seats to advance their political agenda unimpeded because the House Speaker only votes under certain conditions.
Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, a Quebec Liberal, only votes to break a tie. In cases where the Speaker votes, they historically vote to maintain the status quo in the spirit of neutrality.
This means the Speaker is unlikely to vote in favour of new legislation, but would support the government on a confidence vote.
If the Liberals secure a majority, they would also be able to change the standing orders of the House to give them control of committees.
The Bloc currently has the deciding vote on committees, with the Liberals and Conservatives having the same number of voting members.
Speculation has been rampant on Parliament Hill that the Liberals are trying to court more defectors.
Conservative MP Billy Morin told The Canadian Press ahead of a press conference Monday the Liberals were trying to “poach” him. He later said he is “proud to be a part of a strong opposition.”
Other Conservative MPs have posted on social media in recent days to say they will stay in the Tory caucus.
Liberal MP Wayne Long denied that the party was trying to poach Morin. When asked if he’s expecting more Conservative floor crossers, Long replied, “Not that I’m aware of, no.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 13, 2026.
— With files from Alessia Passafiume, David Baxter and Craig Lord in Ottawa, and Erika Martin and Morgan Lowrie in Terrebonne, Que.
Sarah Ritchie and Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press
