REGINA, Sask. — Business commentator Paul Martin says Canada-U.S. trade talks have entered a quiet stalemate as U.S. midterm politics dominate attention. He argues Saskatchewan has been less exposed to tariff impacts than Central Canada because of its diversified export markets for commodities such as potash, grain, and uranium.
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Craig Reed — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Craig Reed. U.S. President Donald Trump was at it again Wednesday expressing his dissatisfaction with trade negotiations, calling Canada very difficult to deal with and saying that America's northern neighbour has been ripping off the U.S. for years, insisting that Canada had been getting the better of the U.S. in their trade relationship. Trump criticized Canadian tariffs on U.S. made goods and said that America loses around $90 billion each year doing business with Canada, adding that the U.S. should ramp up domestic manufacturing, particularly in the auto sector. As the trade dispute between Canada and the United States drags on, there has been very little movement from either side lately. Business commentator Paul Martin calls the current lull in talks interestingly quiet, noting politics likely has a lot to do with it.
Paul Martin — I think the U.S. midterms are kind of stealing all the headlines, so there isn't much oxygen in Ottawa or in Washington for this conversation right now. And there was a very telling comment that came from Jamieson Greer, who's the U.S. trade negotiator. He's the lead guy who said, you know, we're kind of getting everything we need from Canada right now, so there's no real urgency to push any faster for a trade agreement. And I thought, isn't that an interesting comment in that we're at a stalemate and it's kind of like just move along. And, you know, the Americans are getting what they need from us.
We've imposed some counter tariffs on them. They've imposed some tariffs on us. The only industries that are really feeling it, really Western Canada isn't seeing it much. It's mostly in central Canada, and it's the auto industry and attendant suppliers to them. So the steel industry is feeling it down there, but it's almost like this is becoming a non-event.
We'll see what happens after the midterms. If the U.S. then has some, you know, if there's some space and the agenda down there for them to have this conversation, I suspect it's going to be a challenge for them too, especially if there is a change of control in the houses down there, at least one of them, that they'll have to sort out their politics for a while. And the president, though, won't be quite as sort of preoccupied with campaigning and stuff like that that he's doing right now. So his thought process around Canada, it strikes me, is really just about cheap shots.
There isn't much in the way of substance that either side is talking about. No doubt the negotiators are at work behind the scenes, doing the minutia, doing the detailed work, and maybe something will pop out of that. But at this point, it kind of looks like the waters have settled. We're not talking about much.
And, you know, if you quote Jamieson Greer, we're kind of getting everything we need out of them. They're getting what they need out of us. And there's a few little flare ups, but nothing particularly, uh, headline grabbing at this point. So I don't know how to interpret that. Is it kind of this where we're going to be? Is this what life after USMCA looks like? I don't know.
It's really hard to tell because there's so much preoccupation with the electoral process down there that maybe that's just clouding and masking all of the stuff that really is going on behind the scenes.
Craig Reed — Martin says that as Central Canada is more of a manufacturing hub than the West, it's being targeted more by Trump's tariffs, adding that Saskatchewan's economy is more diverse, allowing the province to more effectively weather the storm to this point.
Paul Martin — Nationally, you know, it's about 70 per cent of Canada's export market goes to the U.S. Take a look at Saskatchewan. It's more like, you know, a whole lot less than that, probably in the 40 to 50 per cent range, somewhere in that neighbourhood. Why? Because we have big customer base for our commodities like potash and grain. They don't just go to the U.S. I mean, we sell in China and India.
Uranium is increasingly becoming a much larger number as we start to expand with that industry adding new mines going forward and global demand for nuclear is starting to increase.
So that's why Saskatchewan in particular has not really felt the impact of the tariffs like, say, they have in southern Ontario.
Craig Reed — Speaking of potash, Martin says President Trump's threat of a tariff on potash was not a real concern.
Paul Martin — That's why I say sometimes the conversation now has been just relegated to Donald Trump issuing bombastic sort of cheap shots or comments.
But potash never was on the agenda. I mean, there is American potash. I think back to the first CEO of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan came out of Esterhazy, but who grew up in California, where at Carlsbad. And there's small production capacity down there. It's a little bit in a couple of spots in the U.S. But, you know, it's nothing compared to what Saskatchewan's got.
And the only other option, really, some in Israel or some in the Middle East, but it's all about Belarus. Russia and Belarus. That's where the big play is against us. So those would be the number one. And number two plays in the world. And Belarus right now is facing a lot of sanctions. So they're not really a part of the conversation.
Craig Reed — That was business commentator Paul Martin. I'm Craig Reed. Have a great day and thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
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