REGINA, Sask. — Montana Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead explains why the tariffs are causing reliable conservative voters to jump ship. We also check in with Winnipeg portfolio manager Adam Pukalo, who breaks down why the stock market is surging despite the relentless geopolitical chaos and looming election.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson.
Despite a week of severe cross-border hostility, the federal government says a snap trade deal with the United States remains a possibility.
Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with President Donald Trump for quite some time Wednesday morning, keeping the lines of direct communication open ahead of the American midterm elections. But Canada's chief trade negotiator, Janice Charette, is delivering a sobering reality check. Speaking to the Toronto business community, Charette cautioned that even with a snap deal, the days of tariff-free trade are gone, saying Canada is in a permanent transition to a new trading relationship.
And the diplomatic environment remains incredibly tense. Following explosive accusations from the United States Embassy that Canadian officials were attempting to interfere in American politics, Ottawa has formally barred Canadian diplomats from meeting with any political candidates in the upcoming United States midterm elections. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is also drastically escalating her fight with American steel executives.
Joly issued a strict two-week ultimatum to Cleveland Cliffs, the United States-based parent company of Stelco, demanding they reverse planned mass layoffs at their Canadian facilities or face imminent legal action. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper is publicly defending Ottawa's standoff. Speaking at a conference in Toronto, Harper disagreed with business leaders demanding a quick deal, pointing out that Canada had a free trade agreement for 40 years, until President Trump decided to rip it up.
As the federal government rushes to build domestic infrastructure and alternative export routes, Prime Minister Carney's Bill C-39 is facing intense pushback. The bill proposes a strict one-year timeline for federal project decisions, but scientists are warning that bypassing vital environmental reviews in the rush for trade independence could cause irreversible harm. In Alberta, Premier Danielle Smith has officially declared the separation debate dead following Monday's decisive Remain vote.
Economic analysts say removing the domestic political risk gives local businesses the confidence to invest capital back into the province while presenting a unified front against Washington. That domestic pivot is opening new doors. Financial networks are highlighting a $12 billion opportunity in Canadian agriculture, as investors rush to capitalize on the forced restructuring of the prairie supply chain to replace lost American buyers.
Meanwhile, North Dakota is leaning heavily on its energy sector to survive the trade war. While agricultural and manufacturing exporters struggle under the tariffs, the number of active oil wells in the state has hit an all-time high. Because Canada explicitly exempted mineral fuels from its retaliatory tariffs, North Dakota's lucrative energy exports continue to flow north without issue, insulating the state's core revenue.
Now, the economic damage in the rest of the border states is severe. Alani Bankhead is the Democratic candidate for United States Senate in Montana. She says the trade war is financially straining American families and violating treaty sovereignty with Indigenous nations.
Bankhead says the breakdown in cross-border cooperation is driving up the human cost of the dispute.
Alani Bankhead — Canada obviously is internationally beloved as just an amazing partner, just goodwill, good natured people. And we've historically had great relationships with Canada. And so it does break my heart that on the international level, you know, things aren't looking good.
And it's, frankly, our doing because of the administration that we have. And so in terms of immediate effects, it's already straining, people's already strained kind of not only pocketbook, but their mental health, right? We're actually seeing an increase in domestic violence abuses happening.
And although they're not directly tied, certainly financial stressors can add to that kind of struggle. But in terms of with Canada, you know, I think what I've learned, because I've been in the federal government for over two decades, and I've spent most of that career overseas. And the bipartisanship and working collaboratively and in community with our foreign partners is how we get better results with kind of the few resources that each country has.
Steven Wilson — Bankhead says American voters are rejecting the disruption of historic alliances and are looking for candidates willing to push back against the Trump administration's isolationist policies.
Alani Bankhead — And I think what we need to get back to, and what people really want to get back to, is being on good terms with our neighbors to the north. And so that means getting different folks elected into office. And I think what you're seeing nationally, not just in Montana, but nationwide in the United States is you have a swell of populist candidates that are rising up that are kind of ignoring what the establishment parties are telling them and offering the people what they want.
And the trade war is something that the people don't want. And they're winning on these messages. And so I'm actually really excited to see Americans take government back and make it one that not only benefits Americans, but also establishes or reestablishes those long ties that we've had with Canada for so long.
Steven Wilson — While the geopolitical landscape remains incredibly volatile, the financial markets are telling a surprisingly different story.
Adam Pukalo is a portfolio manager with Pukalo Prairie Wealth Group at Harbourfront Wealth Management in Winnipeg. He says despite the relentless negative headlines surrounding international tariffs and global conflicts, the actual stock market returns over the last 12 months might shock people.
Adam Pukalo — However, if you look at the last 12 months, so this time last year, until today, when we're talking, we have seen the S&P 500 in the U.S. go up about 15 per cent. And the TSX in Canada here go up about 21 per cent. So which maybe surprises a lot of people given, you know, all the different headline news, all the different things that have happened even this year in 2026.
If you would have just held on to potentially your portfolio, depending on what you're invested in, those are the types of returns you would have seen since from last year until now. So it's maybe a little bit shocking to some people to hear that. But that is the return that we've seen.
Steven Wilson — Pukalo says he is strategically positioning clients for growth heading into the winter. Looking ahead to the upcoming American midterms, he says the absolute best outcome for the global economy is actually political gridlock in Washington.
Adam Pukalo — Well, I think, you know, the thing that I'll maybe leave listeners with is the markets like when nobody has too much control. And so if we see the House and the Senate split, that will actually be a good thing for the markets because then, you know, the person in power cannot make decisions that, you know, other people might not want to be done. So I would say the U.S. midterm elections are quite important for kind of next year and kind of going forward and again, watching to see, you know, who ends up taking maybe kind of more of the power that way.
Steven Wilson — We will see how those midterm races shape up over the coming weeks as border states weigh the true cost of the trade war. I'm Steven Wilson. Thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
Listen weekdays at 9 a.m. on 620 CKRM and GX94 for new installments of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
