REGINA – Alberta is a big winner in interprovincial migration across the country, while Saskatchewan is one of the bigger losers.
That is what the numbers show from a new Fraser Institute study called Interprovincial Migration in Canada, 1995-2024: What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
The study looks at interprovincial migration over a 30 year period from 1995/96 through 2024/25, looking at age as well as provinces of origin and destination. It looks particularly at movement of people between the provinces, and does not take into account international arrivals or departures to and from Canada.
To no one’s surprise Alberta has been the biggest gain in net in-migration over the last 30 years. It has gained 538,824, or 10.7 per cent of the population.
British Columbia is second at 224,883 in net in-migration and Nova Scotia third at 23,299, with PEI fourth at 4,335.
But most provinces saw declines. Quebec and Ontario posted the largest numbers of people leaving through out-migration to other provinces at 255,988 and 168,166. But as percentages of the population those are relatively modest at 2.8 per cent and one per cent of the population respectively.
The other provinces leading the list of places people were leaving were Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador in that order. But in terms of the percentage of the population the impacts were far greater.
During the past 30 years Manitoba lost 155,919 or 10.3 per cent, Saskatchewan lost 123,606 or 9.8 per cent, and Newfoundland and Labrador lost 58,319 or 10.6 per cent. New Brunswick also saw 5,862 people leave in net out-migration for 0.7 per cent.
In Saskatchewan’s case, the province had been notorious for losing residents to out-migration prior to the Sask Party government taking over in 2007. But after a few years of an uptick, the trend once again points to Saskatchewan people leaving.
Grady Munro, Senior Policy Analyst of the Fraser Institute, explained some of the numbers they were seeing.
“This has been a long-standing trend, actually,” Munro said. He noted that over the last 30 years, “there's only been one seven-year period from 2006 to 2012 where Saskatchewan's been able to attract more people than it loses to other provinces. For the rest of the 30-year period, for the 23 other years since 1995, Saskatchewan has lost people to the rest of Canada.”
The outmigration comes in spite of Saskatchewan actually gaining in population over the last several years. But that population gain has come from international arrivals from other countries and not so much from arrivals from other provinces.
“Any population gains that Saskatchewan has made in recent years wouldn't be through people moving from other provinces,” Munro said. “And specifically, too, we see that people of all different ages are also leaving the province as well. It's kind of a long-standing trend and a broad trend where people of all ages are leaving Saskatchewan. We see that over the 30-year gap, Saskatchewan lost over 26,000 people who are 18 to 24 years old. It also lost over 11,000 people who are aged 65 and older. So, it's this broad trend that we see across age groups as well.”
As for which province Saskatchewan people are leaving for, over half — 51 per cent — have gone to Alberta, according to the study. But Saskatchewan has not been alone in seeing residents pack up their moving vans to head to the Wild Rose province
“Alberta has been the clear top destination for people moving within Canada,” Munro said.
As for why, there's “many, many reasons why people choose to migrate. They can be for economic reasons, whether it's to find a better job, enjoy lower taxes, seek out a better standard of living. They can also be for personal reasons.”
He said they “don't dig into exactly why in this study people are – or why we've seen the trends that we have for certain provinces. But you can look at some general things, which is that generally the level of economic growth and economic performance that we see in provinces is a strong indicator of the level of migration we'll see.”
He said it is known that Alberta has “long been one of the strongest, if not the strongest economy in Canada between the provinces. And that largely fits with attracting the largest amounts of migrants.”
But Munro also noted that from 2015 to 2020 Alberta had seen a six-year period where it lost people to out-migration to the rest of Canada.
Munro said that “if we look at what government's doing at that time, we see it's a time of relatively poor economic policy. We saw that both personal income tax rates and corporate income tax rates were raised by the Notley government, which took power in 2015. We saw sustained budget deficits, increased debt, and increased regulation on the economy as well.”
The trends in how people were moving “certainly reflected these other policy trends in terms of taxes and economic growth.”
Meanwhile, the perceived economic engine of Canada — Ontario — has seen a steady decline over the past 30 years. That has persisted across all age groups, including people who are younger, said Munro.
“We saw that over the last 30 years, Ontario lost over 97,000 people who are aged 18-44 years old. And so ultimately, you're right that Ontario, this fits with a longstanding trend in Ontario, which is that economic growth in the province has been stagnant. And actually, we see that coinciding with particular stagnation in Ontario's economy in recent years. We see that since from 2020 to 2024, Ontario has actually suffered the highest outflow of people out of the province at any point in this 30-year period.”
As for what policymakers and leaders should take away from these numbers, Munro said the trends in migration are “a pretty strong indication of whether or not a province is succeeding or failing, whether or not it's offering an attractive place for people to live and work.”
Munro said for provinces that are seeing considerable and sustained levels of migration out of the province, this could be a wake-up call. “And it's important to recognize any problem before you can solve it. And ultimately, when provinces like Ontario, like Saskatchewan, are seeing these significant and sustained amounts of people leaving the province, that's a wake-up call, and that's a wake-up call for policymakers to recognize that they need to do more to make their provinces an attractive place to live.”
