REGINA, Sask. — Canadian manufacturing plummets to a six-month low as the United States Trade Representative throws cold water on a quick resolution at the G-20 summit. We also look at a new Cornell University study warning that cross-border power tariffs could trigger American blackouts. Finally, we feature an exclusive, uncut Harvard Media interview with Prime Minister Mark Carney covering agricultural equipment relief, the diplomatic freeze, and more.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson. If there was any hope for a quick resolution to the cross-border trade war, Washington threw cold water on it this week.
At the G20 trade talks in New York, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled the White House is in no rush to end the dispute, telling reporters there are a handful of outstanding issues that are quite difficult to resolve. That came despite a direct plea from Canadian Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, who urged his American counterparts to de-escalate the conflict and help each other. The economic toll of the standoff is mounting rapidly.
New data from S&P Global reveals Canadian factory activity plummeted to a six-month low in September. The manufacturing slump is also rippling south into border states like North Dakota that supply those factories. Meanwhile, a major peer-reviewed study published by Cornell University warns that the trade war poses an extreme risk to the interconnected North American power grid.
Researchers found that applying tariffs to Canadian power would drastically reduce imported electricity, raise consumer prices, increase carbon emissions, and make the United States power system far more vulnerable to extreme weather blackouts.
The breakdown in bilateral cooperation is also exacerbating regional environmental disputes. Following the United States Senate's recent lifting of the moratorium on the Twin Metals Mine, border communities and indigenous groups in British Columbia and Montana are increasingly clashing over shared water resources and a lack of regulatory coordination.
Despite the geopolitical freeze, border agencies in both countries jointly announced operational changes to the Nexus program yesterday in a bureaucratic attempt to manage cross-border travel. With the American market increasingly hostile, Canada is aggressively pivoting toward domestic energy sovereignty and Asian exports. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have released the timeline for the Pacific Link, a massive pipeline project stretching from Alberta to the British Columbia coast.
Prime Minister Carney was in Fort McMurray yesterday to champion the project. We will have more about the Pacific Link announcement next week, but today we want to bring you an exclusive conversation. Harvard Media's Jon Tupper met with the Prime Minister in our Fort McMurray studios to discuss the trade dispute.
We pick up the interview with the Prime Minister's direct response to concerns over the soaring cost of imported agricultural equipment before moving into the diplomatic freeze and a little hockey talk.
Prime Minister Mark Carney — We look at, yeah, so first thing, first things first, I'll just underscore the importance of creating new markets and sustainable markets and large-scale markets for agricultural produce, whether it's canola, pea protein, you know, the barley, et cetera, meat, pork, et cetera. We've been doing that and we will continue to do that to expand. We are absolutely committed to that.
Secondly, in terms of other usage, and I'm going to keep with canola for a second, the agrodiesel and the improvements there, you know, you're adding $1, $1.25 to a bushel of canola, to the price of a bushel of canola, that's attractive. We'll continue to do that. Good for the environment, good for our farmers, good for diversification.
We will look at specific tariff relief for essential equipment that you can't get anywhere else because we want to make sure our farmers are productive. That's an ongoing process and we'll make sure that what's needed is available. Bigger picture, we will have tariffs on some American goods.
They have high tariffs that are hurting our industries. They're targeted and we want to make sure Canadian producers have the advantages they deserve and that American producers don't have unfair advantages here. So we've got it broadly right.
There's always adjustments we need to make.
Jon Tupper — Two more questions here, which is, can you give us a little bit of an update on where things are with the United States?
Prime Minister Mark Carney — Well, where things are, I mean, the headline where things are with the United States, beneath all the headlines, so to speak, is 80 per cent of our trade is still tariff-free. The discussions we had with them, negotiations we had with them over the summer, in the end, they asked too much and were giving too little, and there were very clear lines around our sovereignty that we would not cross. And there were also elements of the potential deal, as it was getting towards the finish line, that would have rendered key industries uncompetitive and locked in that.
And we're in front of a position where we do have a trade deal with the United States, which they're not. Secondly, we are always ready to sit down and negotiate in good faith a mutually advantageous trade deal, something that works for both of us. That deal exists.
There's many variants of that deal, and we remain open to doing that. There are lines of communication. We're negotiating with the U.S. right now, and we continue, and I think it's important to underscore, we continue to cooperate with the United States, as Canada and the United States have for decades, on a whole host of issues, all below the surface, and that relationship continues to work well. I continue to speak with the president on a wide range of issues, as well. When the right moment arrives to hammer out that deal, we're ready.
Jon Tupper — And to talk about trade and repatriation, what do you think the chances of the Edmonton Oilers making the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup?
Prime Minister Mark Carney — Repatriating the Stanley Cup, that's exactly right. So there's a lot in there. Do you think we need to make a trade in order to do that?
We'll wait till we get to March. I think, look, I had the privilege of going to the home opener, and I will say meeting Conor McDavid and Bouchard and Mattias Eklund, and the new coaching staff and management. That team is fired up.
It's got a lot of depth. It is focused on the details, as you would expect for my Babcock coach team. I just felt the energy in the room.
Obviously, it wasn't the first result on the first night, and a couple of things, a couple of pucks bounced the wrong way. But I think it's pretty good. I think it's pretty good because it's talent, attitude, and execution that ultimately gets you.
You have to have absolutely everything. We know how close we came a few years ago in the Stanley Cup Finals to that repatriation. So the little bit extra is coming there, and 100 per cent behind it.
Steven Wilson — That was Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking with Harvard Media's Jon Tupper in Fort McMurray. Next week, we will have more on the PacificLink pipeline announcement and what it means for the future of prairie energy exports. We'll also have updates over any new developments that happen over the weekend.
I'm Steven Wilson. Have a great weekend, and thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
Listen daily @9 am to 620CKRM and GX94 for new installments of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
