REGINA, Sask. — We examine Ottawa's threat to force the sale of Stelco's Canadian assets, review a new Desjardins study showing businesses are making permanent shifts away from the American market, and track a sharp decline in cross-border shopping and tourism affecting North Dakota and Montana.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson.
The international trade conflict between Canada and the United States has collided head-on with a historic provincial crossroads.
Polls opened this morning across Alberta for the province's independence referendum, and what was once debated primarily as an internal constitutional question has been reshaped by cross-border economic warfare.
In a remarkable show of political unity Friday, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith campaigned side by side in Red Deer and Edmonton.
Setting aside their usual political differences, the two leaders delivered a joint message urging Albertans to vote no and reject separation.
Carney pointed directly to the trade war and U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated threats to make Canada the 51st state, telling voters that walking away from Canada during an international trade crisis would be a catastrophic gamble.
Carney warned that this is not a game of poker and that a vote against Canada would be a dangerous bluff, leading to years of deep uncertainty.
Smith echoed those concerns, warning that an independent Alberta would be forced to negotiate trade access with Washington from scratch, without the collective weight of the Canadian economy behind it.
The referendum has also triggered a political flare-up between Ottawa and Washington.
Carney issued a stern warning to the United States and other foreign actors, telling them not to get involved in Canada's elections.
That warning followed reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held private meetings with Alberta separatist leaders, reportedly describing the province as a natural partner for the United States.
The reports of those back-channel talks drew strong condemnation from First Nations leadership.
As voting got underway, a prominent Indigenous leader publicly criticized the reported meetings between separatist figures and American officials during a trade war, describing the dealings as treasonous to the people of Canada and Alberta.
The Prairie political scene also attracted attention from tech billionaire and close Trump ally Elon Musk.
Posting on his social media platform X last week, Musk suggested Alberta and Saskatchewan should separate as well, further fuelling Prairie alienation amid the ongoing dispute.
While the referendum dominates the headlines, Ottawa is escalating its fight against American corporate power in the industrial sector.
On Friday afternoon, the federal government issued a direct threat to U.S. steel giant Cleveland-Cliffs, which recently acquired Canadian steelmaker Stelco.
The move followed accusations from the company's chief executive officer that the Canadian government was engaging in bullying and harassment over potential tariff-related layoffs.
Federal officials responded by warning that Ottawa was prepared to force the sale of Stelco's Canadian assets.
The government insisted Cleveland-Cliffs must maintain Canadian jobs in accordance with the terms of its purchase agreement, drawing a hard line as cross-border steel tariffs continue to disrupt the manufacturing sector.
For businesses caught in the middle of the trade war, the period of waiting for political tensions to ease appears to be over.
A major macroeconomic study published Friday by Desjardins Economic Studies suggests Canadian companies have exhausted their contingency buffers.
The report, titled Trade War: From Wait and See to Difficult Decisions, concludes that businesses are no longer treating tariffs imposed by the Trump administration as a temporary disruption.
According to the study's analysis of first-quarter projections, companies across Canada are making permanent, structural changes to their supply chains to reduce their dependence on the United States.
Rather than waiting for a negotiated settlement that may never come, Canadian firms are rewriting contracts, sourcing components from domestic suppliers and establishing new overseas partnerships.
Those structural changes are not without economic consequences.
On Saturday afternoon, the governor of the Bank of Canada warned that high global energy prices and persistent cross-border trade barriers threaten Canada's inflation outlook.
The central bank says heightened volatility will complicate upcoming interest rate decisions as policymakers attempt to keep consumer prices in check without pushing the economy into a recession.
Consumer prices rose 3.1 per cent nationwide year over year last month, driven largely by a 27.8 per cent increase in gasoline prices.
Excluding gasoline, Statistics Canada reported consumer prices increased 2.2 per cent.
Grocery prices rose 1.7 per cent, the smallest annual increase since May 2024.
Across the Prairies, the shift away from traditional American markets is becoming visible in several industries.
Following a federal funding announcement last week, Canada's wool industry, which has a significant presence in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, is increasingly turning toward domestic processing and manufacturing.
With American tariffs disrupting traditional export markets south of the border, Prairie sheep producers are working to develop domestic wool washing, processing and manufacturing facilities to help sustain the industry.
Meanwhile, the economic pain is not flowing in just one direction.
South of the 49th parallel, border communities in North Dakota and Montana are feeling the effects of the trade dispute.
Reports from local businesses over the weekend indicate cross-border travel by Canadians has dropped sharply over the past month.
With border tensions running high, travel advisories in effect and consumer boycotts of American goods continuing, more Canadians are choosing to stay home.
That decline is taking a toll on retail stores, restaurants and hotels in northern border communities that rely heavily on Canadian shoppers and tourists.
Later this week on Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies, we'll take a closer look at how cross-border frustration is shaping American politics.
We'll speak with candidates running in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in North Dakota and Montana to hear what voters, farmers and business owners are telling them on the campaign trail.
And tomorrow, we'll have more on the results of Alberta's historic referendum vote taking place today.
I'm Steven Wilson. Thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
Local news is delivered right to your smartphone with the GX94 app and is available anytime at sasktoday.ca and gx94radio.com.
Listen weekdays at 9 a.m. on 620 CKRM and GX94 for new installments of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
