CALGARY, Alta. — Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections are unlikely to bring relief from American tariffs or improve Canada's prospects for a new trade agreement, according to a University of Calgary international trade expert.
Carlo Dade, director of international policy and the New North America Initiative at the university's School of Public Policy, says the election results will do little to constrain President Donald Trump's ability to impose tariffs on Canadian goods.
Asked what the Democratic gains mean for Canada-U.S. trade relations, Dade's response was blunt.
“Nothing.”
Dade says the problem facing Canada is structural, with Congress having delegated significant tariff authority to the president through legislation allowing trade restrictions under certain circumstances.
Although Democrats made gains in both chambers of Congress, Dade says neither party has the two-thirds majority needed to override a presidential veto if lawmakers attempt to restrict those powers.
He points to previous Senate votes opposing Trump's tariffs as evidence of the limits of congressional opposition.
“In April of last year, the Senate voted 51-48 to repeal the tariffs on Canada, yet we still have the tariffs,” Dade said.
He says the president will retain considerable freedom to maintain existing trade restrictions and introduce new ones, regardless of the election results.
Dade also expects the administration could announce additional tariffs within days, following an investigation by the U.S. Trade Representative into overcapacity among American trading partners.
The election is also unlikely to improve the prospects of a negotiated trade agreement between Ottawa and Washington.
Both Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump had suggested progress toward a compromise before the election, but Dade is skeptical of those statements.
“That's noise, not signal. It's spin coming out of PMO, it's spin coming out of the White House. Noise, not signal.”
Dade says similar announcements have preceded trade negotiations with other countries, only for talks to stall until Washington was prepared to make concessions.
He argues progress in Canada-U.S. negotiations will depend more on decisions made by the Trump administration than on the composition of Congress.
While the election could give opponents of Trump's trade policies a larger platform in Washington, Dade says political pressure and legislative authority are two very different things.
“Congress can do things like hold investigations into the impact of tariffs and try and embarrass the administration and increase public pressure on the administration to end the tariffs,” he said.
“But that is not relief from the tariffs. That is not forcing the president to repeal the tariffs.”
Dade also cautions against assuming Trump will become a politically weakened president during the remaining two years of his term.
He notes Trump lost control of the House of Representatives during his first presidency without significantly slowing his administration's agenda.
For Canada, Dade says the election may have changed the political balance in Washington, but it has not fundamentally altered the challenges facing Canadian exporters or the country's trade relationship with the United States.
