REGINA, Sask. — We examine why the growing trade alliance between Canada and China is terrifying American border states, and hear a ground-level report on how the geopolitical freeze is secretly hollowing out Saskatchewan's industrial job market.
Podcasts are available now on GX94, Yorkton, or on 620 CKRM, Regina, hosted by Steven Wilson. Or read the transcript below:
Steven Wilson — Welcome to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies. I'm Steven Wilson. Prime Minister Mark Carney is looking across the Atlantic and Pacific to build leverage against Washington.
Yesterday, the Prime Minister departed for a massive series of international summits, starting in Europe and then to Asia, culminating in a highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Geopolitical experts say the trip is a direct pivot away from the United States. Analysts say any potential deals struck in Beijing, including allowing more Chinese vehicles into Canada or securing new energy investments, are explicitly designed to counter American tariff threats.
The federal conservatives are highly criticizing the departure. They argue signing overseas trade pacts distracts the government from the severe localized affordability crisis caused by the border dispute. The liberals are countering those claims, stating that securing face time with Asian leaders is the only way to help build strong supply chains that will survive the Trump administration's tariffs.
The pivot to Asia is sending a chill through American border states. Following Canada's recent deal to exchange prairie canola for Chinese steel, agricultural and industrial exporters in North Dakota and Montana are realizing the damage could be permanent. Border state coalitions fear their traditional cross-border supply chains may never return, even if Washington eventually lifts the tariffs and the outright bans on some products.
While Ottawa looks overseas, the macroeconomic standoff is tearing into the provincial job market here at home. While top-line employment numbers for October appear strong on the surface, a deeper look reveals serious cracks in trade-exposed sectors. Corey Atkinson breaks down how the prolonged border dispute is hollowing out Saskatchewan's industrial core and driving up wage inequality.
Corey Atkinson — The escalating trade dispute between Canada and the United States is sending a deep chill through the Saskatchewan economy this autumn. While top-line employment numbers for October appear very strong on the surface, a deeper look at the provincial labour data reveals cracks developing in trade-exposed sectors. In the first glance at the numbers, unadjusted for seasonality, the province added 3,700 jobs between August and October.
However, that net increase is an illusion created by the seasonal return of 13,300 educational workers for the fall school term. When those seasonal teachers and support staff are removed from the equation, the remainder of the provincial economy actually contracted by 9,600 jobs over those two short months. The damage is concentrated heavily in the resource extraction and manufacturing sectors, which rely heavily on open cross-border trade.
The forestry, mining and oil and gas sector peaked at 24,600 employees in August before the dispute intensified. By October, that vital sector had bled 3,000 jobs, falling by more than 12 per cent to a 13-month low. Hiring in the manufacturing sector has completely frozen, while the wholesale and retail trade industry shed 2,000 workers as consumer confidence waned.
The economic fallout is also hitting workers directly in their wallets, driving up wage inequality across the province. In natural resources and agriculture, average paycheques have shrunk by more than $105 per week since August. Workers in manufacturing and utilities saw their weekly wages drop by $51 over the same period.
The pain is not being shared equally on factory floor. Male manufacturing labourers saw their wages jump, while female labourers experienced a massive collapse in pay, resulting in a shocking 53 per cent gender wage gap. As the trade standoff with Washington drags into the cold winter, these October labour statistics could end up serving as a stark warning.
The provincial job market is rapidly hollowing out its vital full-time industrial core, leaving many thousands of Canadian families bracing for a highly uncertain economic future heading into the brand new year. I'm Corey Atkinson.
Steven Wilson — We will continue to watch for major economic announcements as the Prime Minister continues his overseas tour, which begins in earnest today in Dublin, Ireland. I'm Steven Wilson. Thank you for listening to Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
Listen weekdays at 9 a.m. on 620 CKRM and GX94 for new installments of Trade Dispute: Impact on the Prairies.
