Crop yields in Saskatchewan are better than last year, but the decline in prices will mean lower overall returns.
Using Statistics Canada estimated yields and comparing them to the estimated yields from one year ago, all crops are showing a significant increase. It should be noted that the Statistics Canada yields do vary from those being estimated in the Saskatchewan crop report from the Ministry of Agriculture. For instance, Sask Ag estimates a provincial canola yield of 34 bushels per acre while Statistics Canada is at 39.
While yields are up, prices are all down. Based on publicly reported prices, canola was $17.50 a bushel at this time last year while it’s currently around $12. Therefore, its gross return, yield times price, is down dramatically.
Spring wheat prices are more than two dollars a bushel lower, but with the better yield, the gross return is very similar to last year. The same is true for feed barley. A much better yield is largely compensating for a price decline of around $2 a bushel.
Durum prices are down more than six dollars a bushel, dramatically dropping durum returns despite the somewhat higher provincial yield.
Gross returns per acre are higher this year for chickpeas, flax and field peas.
After deducting expenses, the most profitable crops are chickpeas and large green lentils.
The tables below compare this year with last year.
September 2024
| SK Yield | Price | Gross/acre | Expenses/acre | Net/acre | |
| Barley | 59 | 4.50 | 266 | 424 | (158) |
| Canary seed | 1251 | .34 | 425 | 440 | (15) |
| Canola | 39 | 12.20 | 476 | 564 | (88) |
| Chickpeas | 1573 | .42 | 660 | 504 | 156 |
| Flaxseed | 24 | 16.50 | 396 | 415 | (19) |
| Lentils (r/g) | 1445 | .29/.50 | 419/722 | 398/452 | 21/270 |
| Mustard (b) | 680 | .31 | 211 | 367 | (156) |
| Oats | 80 | 4.00 | 320 | 381 | (61) |
| Peas (y/g) | 35 | 9.50/14 | 333/490 | 466/476 | (133)/14 |
| Wheat, durum | 35 | 8.00 | 280 | 467 | (187) |
| Wheat, spring | 46 | 7.20 | 331 | 482 | (151) |
September 2023
| SK Yield | Price | Gross/acre | Expenses/acre | Net/acre | |
| Barley | 44.4 | 6.40 | 284 | 545 | (261) |
| Canary seed | 1079 | .45 | 486 | 547 | (61) |
| Canola | 32.7 | 17.50 | 572 | 658 | (86) |
| Chickpeas | 997 | .53 | 528 | 581 | (53) |
| Flaxseed | 17.1 | 15.50 | 265 | 506 | (241) |
| Lentils (r/g) | 919 | .39/.60 | 358/551 | 485 | (127)/66 |
| Mustard (b) | 573 | .78 | 447 | 456 | (9) |
| Oats | 68 | 4.50 | 306 | 493 | (187) |
| Peas (y/g) | 26.2 | 10.50/15 | 275/393 | 520 | (245)/(127) |
| Wheat, durum | 26.5 | 14.50 | 384 | 559 | (175) |
| Wheat, spring | 35.1 | 9.50 | 333 | 590 | (257) |
The tables use Saskatchewan average yields according to Stats Can. The chickpea yield estimate comes for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture.
Prices are based on current, publicly-posted information, but will vary day to day and by location. Canary seed, chickpeas, lentils and mustard (brown) have yields in pounds per acre and prices in cents per pound. Other crops are in bushels.
Yield times price gives the average gross return per acre.
No distinction is made in the Stats Can yield estimates for red versus green lentils or yellow versus green peas. However, the prices are dramatically different producing very different returns.
The expenses per acre come from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s Crop Planning Guides. This includes variable expenses such as seed, fertilizer, crop protection products and fuel. It also includes machinery investment and depreciation as well as a land investment cost. Note that their expense methodology changed a bit from 2023 to 2024.
In 2022, using the same analysis, all crops had a positive net return, albeit some of the net returns were not large. Last year had almost all negative net returns with the one exception being large green lentils.
This year, chickpeas, lentils and green peas are the only crops showing a positive net return.
