OTTAWA — A new report says one in five newcomers to Canada leaves the country within 25 years of their arrival — and most of those who depart do so within the first five years of arriving.
The Institute for Canadian Citizenship’s annual “Leaky Bucket” report, produced in collaboration with the Conference Board of Canada, says people with doctorates and other highly skilled individuals are far more likely to leave than those with lower skill or education levels.
Daniel Bernhard, the institute’s CEO, told a press conference in Ottawa on Tuesday the new report shows a continuing trend of immigrants leaving Canada before 25 years have elapsed.
The first “Leaky Bucket” report, published in 2023, found outmigration rates spiked in 2019 — when the annual percentage of newcomers leaving Canada before 25 years had passed hit 1.2 per cent, up from the historic average of 0.9 per cent.
That number remained high in 2020, despite pandemic travel restrictions, according to the 2024 report.
“While these figures may seem modest, their cumulative impact is substantial,” the report says.
The 2024 report said 18 per cent of immigrants ultimately left Canada within 25 years.
Bernhard said the new report, which tracks outmigration up to the end of 2021, shows the percentage of immigrant health care workers leaving Canada before the five-year mark hit 36 per cent that year.
“That’s the same for scientists. The five-year departure rate for experienced executives is 19 per cent above average,” Bernhard said.
“Software developers, AI and cybersecurity professionals, managers in finance, engineering, architecture, the very people who can help Canada build the economy and infrastructure and housing of the future all leave at above-average rates.”
Bernhard said he estimates the rate of immigrants leaving Canada has increased since 2021.
Based on these trends, the report forecasts that more than 20,000 of the 380,000 permanent residents expected to be admitted to Canada next year will leave by 2031.
The institute is calling on the government to develop a talent retention strategy to encourage highly skilled immigrants to stay long-term. Bernhard said the government should speed up recognition of foreign professional credentials and launch settlement services to link skilled immigrants with relevant employers.
“The immigration system, the express entry system turns away about 95, 96 per cent of applicants. It’s very, very hard … But once they get in the door, we say, ‘All right, you’re on your own. Good luck,'” Bernhard said.
“So we have these very, very qualified people who are doing jobs that they are overqualified for. The taxi driver still has a PhD.”
The government introduced a 13-year, $1.7 billion strategy to attract international doctoral students and researchers in this year’s federal budget. It also includes a promise of 14-day processing times for visa applicants and their families.
Bernhard said the return on investment for this program is in doubt without a solid plan to keep these people in Canada in the long term.
The report shows a higher rate of outmigration in Atlantic Canada, with about 36 per cent of immigrants in those provinces leaving over 25 years.
B.C. and Quebec saw outmigration rates of about 28 and 27 per cent respectively over the same period of time.
The rest of Canada saw outmigration rates around the 20 per cent mark over 25 years.
The report is based on analysis of immigrants’ tax data and concludes a newcomer has left Canada if they did not file tax for two consecutive years and do not appear in 2022 tax data.
The report does not cite data indicating where those immigrants leaving Canada are ending up.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 18, 2025.
David Baxter, The Canadian Press
